Nitrogen Market Overview

Urea Market Trends

Urea prices in April 2025 exhibited mixed performance across global markets, influenced by geopolitical tensions, freight disruptions, and proactive procurement strategies. While Middle Eastern supply routes faced ongoing instability, the impact on regional FOB prices varied by origin.

Key Drivers:

• Middle East Conflict & Port Congestion:
  Heightened maritime security risks in the Red Sea, especially around the Bab-el-Mandeb strait, and delays at Bandar Abbas and Sohar caused freight rate increases. However, FOB Iran prices remained relatively stable or slightly weaker, as port bottlenecks constrained export volume growth.
  
  
• India’s Strategic Tendering:
  India issued an early tender to secure granular urea for the upcoming kharif season, tightening availability in the Middle East and Southeast Asia. This buoyed FOB Oman and UAE prices but had a limited effect on Iranian exports, which were already logistically constrained.
  
  
• Iranian Production & Export Challenges:
  Iranian plants continued production recovery post-winter, but inland congestion and vessel delays prevented full-scale export resumption. As a result, FOB Bandar Abbas prices stayed capped, ranging between 331 and 350 USD/MT.
  
  

Regional Highlights:

• Iran (Bandar Abbas): Prices slightly declined from 342–350 USD/MT in March to 331–350 USD/MT in April (FOB). This minor drop was due to freight volatility, port congestion, and delayed vessel loadings despite steady production recovery. Market sentiment remained cautious, and price support was fragile.
• Oman & UAE: Prices rose from an average of 385 USD/MT in March to approximately 402–405 USD/MT in April. This increase reflected tight regional supply, strong Indian demand, and diverted trade flows from other Middle Eastern ports under strain.
• Vietnam (SE Asia CFR): Prices increased from 420 USD/MT in March to about 432–435 USD/MT in April. The rise was driven by India’s early tender, limited Chinese export availability, and increased seasonal demand in Southeast Asia.
• Brazil (CFR): Prices were stable to slightly lower, averaging around 430–435 USD/MT in April, down from 437–440 USD/MT in late March. This reflected slow spot activity, high inventories, and buyers awaiting clearer price direction.
  
  

Ammonia Market Trends

Ammonia prices experienced a modest downward correction in April 2025, particularly in the Middle East and Black Sea regions, due to ample supply, sluggish industrial demand, and limited spot trade activity.

Key Observations:

• Middle East Oversupply:
  Ammonia prices in the Middle East experienced mild downward pressure in April 2025, declining from 320 USD/MT to 315 USD/MT FOB, primarily due to increased availability from major producers like Saudi Arabia and Qatar. These countries expanded exports after completing seasonal domestic demand cycles, contributing to oversupply and weakening spot prices across Gulf terminals.
  
  
• Stable to Firm Asian Demand:
  While upstream FOB prices decreased, Asia’s CFR ammonia market remained stable at 395 USD/MT, underpinned by steady industrial demand in India, Thailand, and South Korea. Fertilizer producers and chemical manufacturers maintained regular import volumes, helping prevent further regional price softening.
  
  
• Black Sea Constraints:
  In the Black Sea, FOB ammonia prices dropped slightly from 290 USD/MT in March to 283 USD/MT in April, due to limited buying interest from Mediterranean markets and ongoing freight inefficiencies. Sanctions and complex shipping routes restricted trade flows, further complicating price support in the region.
  
  
• Freight Influence:
  Freight volatility—primarily outbound from the Middle East—contributed to pricing dislocations between FOB origins and CFR destinations. Some Asian buyers began seeking contractual security to hedge against future freight-driven cost spikes.
  
  

Regional Highlights:

• Middle East (FOB):
  Prices slipped slightly from 320 USD/MT in March to 315 USD/MT in April, as increased export supply from key producers like Saudi Arabia and Qatar added pressure on spot values. While production remained stable, reduced buying from South Asia and some reallocation of cargoes to Europe added downward momentum. Freight congestion through the Red Sea also complicated FOB competitiveness.
  
  
• Black Sea (FOB):
  Ammonia prices in the Black Sea dropped from 290 USD/MT to 282.5 USD/MT. The market faced subdued demand from Mediterranean and Southern European buyers and lingering logistical inefficiencies from ongoing regional instability and port restrictions. Ukrainian and Russian-origin ammonia shipments continued under constraints, limiting active trade despite available capacity.
  
  
• Asia (CFR):
  Prices remained firm at 395 USD/MT, unchanged from March. Stable demand from fertilizer and industrial users in India, Indonesia, and Thailand, combined with longer-term procurement contracts, helped insulate the region from FOB fluctuations. Due to rising freight risk and tighter shipping availability, some buyers prioritized secure cargo flow over price flexibility.

Sulfur and Sulfuric Acid

Sulfur Market Trends: Prices Rise on Logistics and Chinese Import Demand

In April 2025, the sulfur market experienced a robust upward trend, marked by supply limitations, rising transportation costs, and a resurgence in demand from key industrial hubs, most notably China. As a vital raw material in the production of phosphate fertilizers (e.g., Single Superphosphate (SSP) and Triple Superphosphate (TSP)), as well as in the manufacturing of sulfuric acid for industrial and agrochemical use, sulfur’s price movement serves as a leading indicator for broader downstream fertilizer cost trends.

Key Drivers:

• Geopolitical Freight Risks:

Ongoing instability in the Middle East, particularly around the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz, continued to disrupt maritime logistics. Vessel rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope and congestion at key export terminals, such as Bandar Abbas (Iran) and Ruwais (UAE), increased freight costs and vessel turnaround times. These factors contributed to a 20–30 USD/MT increase in FOB sulfur prices, especially from Iran.

• 
  China’s Procurement Activity:

Chinese importers increased sulfur purchases in April to replenish stocks and support phosphate production (notably DAP and TSP). This procurement surge pushed CFR China prices to 210–220 USD/MT, compared to 200–205 USD/MT in March. The increase was robust at southern Chinese ports, which benefited from faster routing from the Middle East.

• 
  Tightened Gulf Supply:

Supplies from Ras Laffan (Qatar) and Ruwais (UAE) were lower due to maintenance and prioritization of long-term contracts, which further constrained spot volumes. This shortage raised FOB Gulf prices by 15–20 USD/MT, affecting downstream Southeast Asia and North Africa buyers. Combined with limited vessel availability, this put sustained upward pressure on market sentiment.

Sulfur Price Comparison Table:

Sulfuric Acid Market Trends:

Pressure from Weak Demand

Unlike the sulfur market, sulfuric acid prices faced downward pressure in April 2025, mainly due to sluggish demand from industrial and mining sectors. The downturn was especially notable in South America, with additional softness seen in China and Southeast Asia, where industrial output failed to absorb existing inventories.

Key Observations:

• Chile Mining Sector Weakness:

Prices dropped to 145–150 USD/MT CFR, compared to 155–160 USD/MT in March. The decline was mainly due to lower sulfuric acid demand from copper and lithium mining operations, which delayed or scaled back procurement amid weaker global commodity prices and stricter environmental scrutiny.

• 
  China’s Eastern Port Saturation:

Despite steady fertilizer-sector usage, sulfuric acid prices in China fell to 150–160 USD/MT CFR, from 155–165 in March. Oversupply, particularly at Shandong and Tianjin ports, was driven by a glut of imports and subdued domestic industrial output, including metals processing and battery manufacturing.

• 
  Limited Trade Arbitrage:

Freight costs in the Red Sea and Pacific lanes rose by 12–18%, insufficient to counterbalance weak demand. Buyers resisted any upward movement in FOB offers, forcing sellers to cut prices to keep volumes moving.

• 
  Southeast Asia Stability:

While not as deeply impacted, markets like Indonesia and the Philippines also faced mild downward pressure. Sulfuric acid prices here held steady or dipped slightly, supported by palm oil and fertilizer usage.

Sulfuric Acid Price Comparison Table:

Freight and Logistics

In April 2025, global fertilizer and petrochemical logistics faced severe disruptions, especially across the Middle East and Indian Ocean corridors. The escalation of conflict in the Red Sea region — including attacks on commercial vessels and heightened naval security measures — drove a sharp rise in freight costs and marine insurance premiums.

Shipping companies rerouted vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 7–14 days to standard transit times from the Middle East to Europe, Africa, and Asia. This directly affected shipment schedules, landed costs, and overall market liquidity for critical commodities such as granular urea, ammonia, sulfur, and NPK fertilizers.

Moreover, the shortage of available vessels (due to increased time at sea and port congestion) led to:

• Freight rates for fertilizer cargoes from the Persian Gulf and Red Sea will increase by 25%—35%.
• Insurance premiums are doubling or even tripling for vessels entering conflict-sensitive zones, especially near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
• There has been a shift in buyer behavior, with many buyers preferring FOB terms and arranging their shipping to manage risk exposure.
  
  

As a result, CFR (Cost and Freight) prices for many commodities increased due to product costs, freight, and insurance inflation, complicating negotiations and cargo scheduling across key trade routes.

Key Developments:

• Freight Rate Surge:

Freight rates for shipments from the Middle East surged by 25%–30% compared to March 2025. This rise was primarily triggered by intensified geopolitical tensions and maritime security threats in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping companies applied war-risk surcharges, fuel price markups, and congestion fees—especially on routes bound for Africa, South Asia, and Europe.

• 
  Insurance Premiums Doubled:

Insurance premiums for cargoes departing from Persian Gulf ports doubled in April versus the previous month. The increase was driven by heightened war-risk classifications applied to vessels navigating high-risk corridors, including the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and parts of the Arabian Sea. These premiums further increased the CFR (cost and freight) values for urea, sulfur, and ammonia cargoes.

• 
  Extended Shipping Routes:

Due to security risks and restricted access to the Suez Canal, many shipping lines rerouted vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, especially those destined for Europe and West Africa. This detour added 7 to 14 days to standard delivery times and elevated bunker fuel costs. Cargoes to North and East Africa also faced delays due to rerouting and port congestion in transshipment hubs.

• 
  Port Congestions:

Heavy vessel traffic and heightened security protocols led to congestion and delays at major Middle Eastern ports—including Bandar Abbas (Iran), Sohar (Oman), and Jebel Ali (UAE). The average turnaround time increased by 2–4 days, resulting in schedule backlogs, especially for containerized and break-bulk fertilizer shipments.

• 
  Buyer Strategies and Risk Mitigation:

Importers across Africa, India, Southeast Asia, and Southern Europe adopted flexible procurement strategies to offset uncertainty:

• Preference for CFR contracts with laycan extensions.
• Increased use of FOB contracts to charter vessels independently and manage freight costs directly.
• Some buyers arranged buffer stocks and storage near receiving ports to reduce reliance on just-in-time deliveries.
  
  
  

Freight Cost and Shipping Time Comparison

Regional Market Summaries

Africa: Adapting to Rising Costs and Seeking New Partnerships

West Africa: Fertilizer importers across Nigeria, Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, and Senegal faced persistently high CFR prices in April 2025, with urea, DAP, and NPK shipments reflecting cost surges of USD 20–30/MT compared to earlier in the year. Red Sea freight disruptions drove these increases, rising vessel insurance premiums due to Middle East tensions, and tighter availability of bulk cargoes from traditional suppliers in Iran and the Gulf. In response, buyers have diversified sourcing strategies, actively engaging North African suppliers, particularly Morocco and Egypt, and Russian and CIS exporters. Additionally, Togo and Benin's regional blending and bagging hubs began gaining prominence as cost-effective alternatives.

• North Africa: Morocco further cemented its leadership in phosphate fertilizer exports. April saw robust DAP and MAP shipments from OCP’s Jorf Lasfar hub, with prices ranging from USD 600–620/MT FOB depending on grade and moisture content. Customized soil-specific formulations and enhanced efficiency fertilizers (EEFs) gave OCP a competitive edge in sustainability-driven tenders across Europe and West Africa. Egypt also maintained consistent urea exports in April, with prices supported by continued demand from Latin America and South Asia. Egyptian DAP was actively offered in multiple tenders, with FOB prices fluctuating between USD 683–745/MT during mid-April, depending on origin and shipment schedule.
  
  

Key Insight: African importers increasingly favor long-term supply agreements and decentralized procurement models to navigate freight volatility, war-zone risk premiums, and vessel delays. Investment in inland storage, blending facilities, and alternative corridors—such as via North Africa or direct West African terminals—is accelerating as part of broader supply chain resilience strategies.

India: Early Procurement, Sustainability Push, and Market Evolution

• Early Tender Strategy:
  In anticipation of tightening global urea availability and rising freight costs due to heightened geopolitical risks, Indian importing agencies—including MMTC, NFL, and IPL—issued urea tenders earlier than usual in April 2025. The IPL tender was awarded over 3.55 million tonnes, with East Coast prices between USD 398–414/t CFR and West Coast prices from USD 385–400/t CFR. Although these awards came at a slight premium over February–March levels, they successfully secured essential volumes for the Kharif planting season. By acting early, India stood against looming price spikes, particularly from the Middle East and North Africa, and ensured better vessel scheduling amid global port congestion.
  
  
• Shift Toward Granular Urea:
  The April tender results confirmed a deepening shift toward granular urea over prilled. Granular urea was more competitively priced, with multiple bidders offering sub-400 USD/t CFR levels on the West Coast. Importers favored granular variants due to superior nitrogen use efficiency (NUE), improved flow in mechanized application systems, and reduced degradation during transit and storage—key advantages for India’s increasingly mechanized agriculture.
  
  
• PM PRANAM Biofertilizer Momentum:
  India’s PM PRANAM (Programme for Restoration, Awareness, Nourishment, and Amelioration of Mother Earth) program received renewed political and financial support in April. Several Indian states—especially Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, and Uttar Pradesh—expanded pilot deployments of biofertilizers, including rhizobium-based inoculants, seaweed extracts, and fortified composts. District-level campaigns encouraged farmer adoption via direct subsidies, localized training, and demonstration plots, supporting the broader government objective of reducing reliance on synthetic nitrogen.
  
  

Key Insight: India’s fertilizer policy is evolving rapidly, balancing short-term procurement agility with long-term environmental goals. April’s early tender execution, combined with a strong push toward granular urea and biofertilizers, reflects a dual strategy for resilience and sustainability amid global market disruptions.

China: Tightened Exports and Green Fertilizer Revolution

• Export Controls and Quota Speculation:
  Throughout April 2025, Chinese authorities maintained tight restrictions on fertilizer exports, focusing on urea and DAP. While no formal policy reversal was announced, rumors of a potential relaxation of export curbs caused significant turbulence in global urea markets. On 30 April, local stakeholders confirmed that urea exports are expected to resume from 6 May, with possible export quotas of 3.5–4 million tonnes valid through September. These would likely be restricted to select major producers, with renewed restrictions anticipated from October onward.
  However, strict CIQ inspection protocols remain in effect, requiring 10 working days for certification. This means the first bulk shipments are not expected until late May. As a result, Chinese urea availability on the global market in early Q2 remains limited.
• 
  Market Reactions and Pricing Impacts:
  The mere prospect of resumed exports triggered sharp corrections in global urea futures. Middle East May futures dropped by 37–40 USD/MT to 365 USD/MT FOB, Egyptian FOB futures fell to 375 USD/MT, and Brazil CFR prices slipped by 25 USD/MT to 380 USD/MT. These movements were largely speculative, as physical availability remained constrained in April, and Chinese spot exports for Q1 were minimal—just 6,300 tonnes, compared to 526,000 tonnes in Q1 2023.
• 
  Green Fertilizer Policy Acceleration:

In line with China’s national carbon neutrality roadmap and anticipation of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), the country fast-tracked green fertilizer initiatives in April. Key developments included:

• Launch of pilot green ammonia plants in Inner Mongolia and Sichuan using wind and solar-powered electrolysis.
• Low-carbon urea production trials are conducted at state-owned facilities using CCS (carbon capture and storage).
• Deployment of blockchain-based carbon traceability systems for fertilizer exports aimed at EU buyers.

These shifts position China to remain a global player as international buyers increasingly prioritize carbon credentials.

• Domestic Market Stabilization:

To curb inflation and ensure agricultural stability during the spring season, Chinese regulators expanded fertilizer subsidies, enforced price ceilings through supplier coordination, and prioritized domestic supply in official guidance. As a result, many producers avoided customs clearance delays by limiting exports and focusing instead on domestic contract fulfillment.

Key Insight: China is pursuing a strategic balancing act—protecting food security and rural stability at home while laying the technical and regulatory groundwork for sustainable fertilizer leadership abroad. The export landscape remains volatile in the short term, but structural investments in green production and carbon transparency signal a long-term pivot toward value-added, environmentally compliant exports.

Latin America: Toward Self-Reliance and Enhanced Fertilizer Efficiency

• Stable Import Flows Amid Global Volatility:
  In April 2025, fertilizer import volumes across Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, and Colombia remained steady despite elevated global freight costs and continued supply disruptions from the Middle East. Strategic early procurement and reliance on long-term contracts enabled many countries to fulfill their Q2 agricultural needs, particularly in Brazil, which benefited from Q1 inventory buildup.
  
  
• Brazil’s Fertilizer Self-Sufficiency Program Advances: Brazil’s Plano Nacional de Fertilizantes 2050 (PNF 2050) made concrete strides in April. Key developments included:
• New investment agreements to expand nitrogen and ammonia production in Mato Grosso and Bahia.
• Reactivation of phosphate mines in Goiás and Minas Gerais, supported by fast-tracked exploration licenses.
• Construction of regional blending hubs and micronutrient enrichment plants close to major agricultural zones.

The government reiterated its goal to reduce fertilizer import dependence by 25% by 2035, a crucial step given that Brazil currently imports ~85% of its total fertilizer consumption.

• Surge in Specialty Fertilizer Demand: Markets across Peru, Chile, and Mexico also saw increased demand for value-added fertilizers, including:
• Micronutrient-fortified NPK blends (e.g., Zn, B-enriched 15-15-15).
• Controlled-release fertilizers (CRFs) and bio-stimulant-infused formulations.
• Custom blends tailored for high-value export crops like avocados, grapes, sugarcane, and cocoa.
• 
  Regional Logistics Resilience: Despite freight hikes, Latin American buyers displayed logistical agility, securing slots at alternative ports (e.g., Itaqui, Cartagena) and increasingly favoring CFR contracts with fixed laycan clauses to ensure timely arrivals.

Key Insight: Latin America matures from a volume-oriented fertilizer import model to a resilience-focused, innovation-driven approach. With Brazil investing heavily in local fertilizer production and regional markets embracing specialty and climate-smart inputs, the continent is laying the foundation for long-term fertilizer sovereignty and productivity gains.

Europe: Regulation-Driven Fertilizer Transformation

• CBAM Regulatory Pressure: In April 2025, the forthcoming enforcement of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) continued to reshape fertilizer procurement strategies across Europe. Importers, distributors, and cooperatives increasingly prioritized low-carbon, traceable, and EU-compliant fertilizers to meet upcoming documentation and carbon accounting requirements.

As a result, demand surged for:

• Green ammonia (produced via electrolysis or certified low-carbon methods),
• Blue urea (produced with carbon capture),
• Eco-labeled NPK blends with digital origin and emissions reporting.

Buyers in Germany, France, and the Netherlands offered premium contracts for certified products, accelerating compliance-focused supply chain transitions.

• Granular Urea Consolidates Market Position: Granular urea continued to dominate nitrogen fertilizer purchases in Western and Southern Europe, favored for its:
• Lower volatilization rates compared to prilled variants,
• Ease of mechanical spreading and variable-rate application in precision systems,
• Compatibility with enhanced-efficiency additives (e.g., urease inhibitors).

Despite freight price hikes, April shipments to Spain, Poland, and Italy reflected stable demand.

• NPK Fertilizers: Precision and Performance Focus: There was a notable increase in purchases of specialty NPK blends in fertigation-ready formats and precision nutrient mixes. Regional trends included:
• Southern Europe (Spain, Italy, Greece): There has been a surge in liquid and water-soluble NPKs tailored for greenhouse vegetables, fruit orchards, and vineyards.
• Eastern and Northern Europe: Uptick in controlled-release and polymer-coated NPKs, often combined with remote sensing platforms for in-season nutrient adjustment.
  
  
• Regulatory Compliance Becomes Central to Procurement: European buyers increasingly incorporate Environmental Product Declarations (EPDs), carbon intensity data, and QR-coded traceability systems in their tender processes. This shift is regulatory-driven and consumer-conscious, with downstream food processors demanding transparency in fertilizer sourcing.

Key Insight: Fertilizer procurement in Europe is now defined not merely by price or availability, but by sustainability, traceability, and regulatory compliance. Suppliers that fail to adapt to this shift may be excluded from strategic contracts across the continent.