Global Petrochemical and Fertilizer Market Review - February 2025

Global Fertilizer Price Movements (January vs. February 2025)

In February 2025, the fertilizer market experienced notable price fluctuations driven by supply constraints, geopolitical tensions, and seasonal agricultural demand. Some regions experienced price increases due to shortages, while others saw price declines linked to decreased purchasing activity or logistics disruptions.

The table below compares fertilizer prices for February 2025 against January 2025, highlighting monthly price changes.

Table 1: Global Fertilizer Prices Comparison

Key Observations:

Urea Market: Price Declines in Some Regions, Gains in Others

• Iran: Urea prices declined by 1.3% (390 USD/MT → 385 USD/MT) due to India’s delayed import tender, which limited buying activity in February.
• US (NOLA): Prices ranged from 385 USD/st to 403 USD/st, impacted by weak demand and reduced seasonal purchases.
• Southeast Asia: Prices increased by 2.4% (420 USD/MT → 430 USD/MT) as steady demand from importers supported the market.
• Egypt & Algeria: Prices remained stable as buyers awaited the next major Indian purchase.

Market Outlook:  If India resumes tendering in March, urea prices may rise as major buyers return.

Phosphates Market: Price Increases Due to Supply Constraints

• DAP (India CFR): Prices increased by 0.5% (633 USD/MT → 636 USD/MT), supported by:

a. Tight domestic stocks in India.

b. Strong demand from Brazil (record import volumes in 2024).

• MAP (Brazil CFR): Prices rose by 1.2% (415 USD/MT → 420 USD/MT) due to:

a. Seasonal agricultural demand for fertilizers.

b. Limited global supply of phosphates.

Market Outlook:  Phosphate prices will remain strong, especially if India and Brazil continue heavy import activity.

Sulfur Market: Rising Demand Pushes Prices Higher

• FOB Iran Sulfur: Prices rose by 3.6% (140 USD/MT → 145 USD/MT), reflecting:

a. Tightening supplies in China.

b. Strong demand from Indonesia’s industrial sector.

• CFR China Sulfur: Prices climbed past 200 USD/MT as Chinese refiners struggled with sulfur availability.

Market Outlook:  The sulfur market is expected to stay firm, with continued demand from Asia keeping prices elevated.

Ammonia Market: Prices Declined Due to Oversupply

• FOB Middle East: Prices fell by 3.1% (320 USD/MT → 310 USD/MT), driven by:

a. Surplus supply from key exporters.

b. Limited demand from major ammonia-consuming regions.

• CFR Turkey: Prices declined to 500 USD/MT, reflecting weak buying interest.

Market Outlook:  The ammonia market may remain weak unless supply is reduced or global demand recovers.

Summary & Market Trends:

• Urea Prices: Declined in Iran and the US but increased in Southeast Asia due to steady demand.
• Phosphates: DAP and MAP saw price increases due to low stocks and strong demand from India and Brazil.
• Sulfur: Prices rose 3.6%-4.2% as China and Indonesia boosted purchases.
• Ammonia: Prices declined due to oversupply and weak demand from major buyers.

What to Watch in March 2025:

🔹 India’s Urea Tender: If India returns to the market, urea prices could recover.

🔹 Brazil’s Phosphate Demand: High import levels may keep DAP & MAP prices strong.

🔹 Sulfur Tightness in Asia: Continued demand from China could push prices higher.

🔹 Ammonia Market Uncertainty: Further price drops are possible if supply outpaces demand.

Phosphate Market Analysis - February 2025

Phosphate fertilizers maintained strong pricing momentum in February 2025, supported by:

• Robust agricultural demand in major consuming regions (India, Brazil, and Africa).
• Supply constraints, particularly from China’s reduced export availability.
• Vigorous tender activity, including large purchases from Ethiopia and India.

The table below outlines the price movements of DAP (Diammonium Phosphate) and MAP (Monoammonium Phosphate) in major global markets.

Table 4: DAP & MAP Price Movements

Key Phosphate Market Developments & Insights

1.India: Large-Scale Phosphate Purchases to Support Domestic Supply

• India is finalizing a significant deal with OCP (Morocco):

a. 1.6 million MT of DAP

b. 800,000 MT of TSP (Triple Superphosphate)

• Indian Potash Limited (IPL) secured 45,000-50,000 MT of Australian DAP to meet rising demand.
• Due to continued import demand, DAP prices increased slightly (636 USD/MT CFR India).

Outlook:  With Indian government subsidies (NBS policy) supporting purchases, phosphate imports are expected to remain strong.

2. Ethiopia: Secured 540,390 MT of DAP via Tender

• Ethiopia’s Agricultural Inputs Supply Enterprise (AISE) completed a large DAP purchase in February.
• This reinforces Africa’s growing phosphate demand, particularly in East Africa.

Outlook: Ethiopia’s fertilizer demand is expected to stay firm, with additional imports likely in mid-2025.

3. Brazil: Steady MAP Demand Keeps Prices Firm

• MAP (Monoammonium Phosphate) prices remained stable at 420 USD/MT CFR Brazil.
• DAP demand also held firm (645 USD/MT CFR Brazil), supported by:

1. Record fertilizer imports in 2024.
2. Favorable agricultural conditions.

• Atlas Agro invests in a renewable ammonia plant to enhance domestic fertilizer production.

Outlook:  Brazil’s phosphate market is expected to remain stable, with strong demand for the 2025 planting season.

4. Europe: Higher DAP Prices Amid CBAM Uncertainty

• DAP prices in NW Europe increased by 12 USD/MT (662 USD/MT FOB), reflecting:

a. Higher import costs.

b. Limited availability due to supply constraints.

• CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) continues to impact phosphate imports.
• Fertilizer producers (e.g., Yara) have urged the EU to include export exemptions.

Outlook: Europe’s phosphate prices may remain elevated, especially if CBAM restrictions tighten further.

5. China: Limited Exports Keeping Domestic Prices High

• Chinese domestic DAP prices reached 620 USD/MT, reflecting tight supply.
• MAP prices stood at 410 USD/MT, supported by stable domestic demand.
• China’s export restrictions are limiting the global phosphate supply.

Outlook: If China continues restricting phosphate exports, global prices may remain high.

Chart 3: DAP & MAP Price Trends (Line Chart – February 2025)

A line chart visualization of DAP & MAP price trends in February 2025 highlights:

📈 Rising DAP prices in India, NW Europe, and Ethiopia.

📉 Stable MAP prices in Brazil, with no significant price shifts.

📊 Steady price increases in China’s domestic market due to export limits.

Key Takeaways & Market Trends

📌 India’s large DAP & TSP purchases will support long-term phosphate demand.

📌 Ethiopia’s tender reinforces Africa’s role as a growing phosphate importer.

📌 Brazil’s MAP market remains stable, with steady agricultural demand.

📌 CBAM & European fertilizer policies may impact future phosphate trade flows.

📌 China’s export policies remain a significant factor in global phosphate pricing.

March 2025 Market Outlook

📌 India’s following subsidy decisions will determine the pace of future phosphate imports.

📌 African phosphate imports will likely remain strong, particularly in East Africa.

📌 Brazil’s steady fertilizer demand will continue to support MAP pricing.

📌 European CBAM adjustments could shift phosphate trade patterns.

📌 Chinese export policies remain a critical variable for global supply.

Sulfur, Ammonia, and Ammonium Sulfate (Amsul) Market Trends – February 2025

The sulfur, ammonia, and ammonium sulfate (Amsul) markets exhibited divergent trends in February 2025, reflecting regional supply-demand imbalances and industrial sector fluctuations.



• Sulfur Prices Increased due to strong demand from Indonesia and China, while sulfuric acid faced weaker buying interest.
• Ammonia Prices Declined as oversupply in the Middle East and Turkey pressured prices downward.
• Due to strong demand, Amsul Prices Rose in North America, with AdvanSix increasing its granular Amsul quotes.

The table below provides a detailed breakdown of price movements across these three key markets.

Table 5: Sulfur, Ammonia, & Amsul Price Trends

Key Market Insights & Developments

1. Sulfur Market: Rising Demand in China & Indonesia Drives Prices Higher

• Sulfur prices increased by 3.6%-4.2%, with CFR China sulfur surpassing 200 USD/MT.
• China’s sulfur inventories dropped below 2 million MT, creating higher import demand.
• Indonesia’s fertilizer industry increased sulfur purchases, contributing to firmer prices.
• Iranian FOB sulfur prices rose to 145 USD/MT, reflecting export market demand.

Outlook:

📌 Strong sulfur demand in China & Indonesia may keep prices elevated.

📌 Further sulfuric acid market weakness could create short-term price fluctuations.

2. Ammonia Market: Middle East Oversupply Weighs on Prices

• Middle East ammonia prices dropped by 3.1% to 310 USD/MT FOB due to:

a. Higher production volumes from key exporters.

b. Limited buyer interest in key markets.

• Turkey’s CFR ammonia prices fell to 500 USD/MT, reflecting weak demand.
• Trammo sold a 25,000 MT ammonia cargo to OCP (Morocco) at 459 USD/MT CFR, marking a 76 USD/MT decline.

Outlook:

📌 Ammonia prices may remain weak unless production slows or demand picks up.

📌 Potential price recovery is expected if Indian or European buyers enter the market.

3. Ammonium Sulfate (Amsul) Market: Higher Prices in North America

• AdvanSix raised granular Amsul quotes to 440 USD/st, citing strong domestic demand.
• Inland Amsul prices increased to 485 - 490 USD/st in the Midwest & Ohio River markets.
• Export demand remained stable, with key shipments to Latin America and Southeast Asia.

Outlook:

📌 Amsul prices could continue rising, especially with strong spring fertilizer demand in the U.S.

📌 Export demand is expected to remain stable, supporting North American pricing.

Key Takeaways & Market Trends

📌 Sulfur prices increased due to strong demand from China & Indonesia.

📌 Ammonia prices declined due to oversupply in the Middle East & Turkey.

📌 Amsul prices rose in North America, with AdvanSix leading price increases.

March 2025 Market Outlook

📌 Sulfur demand in China & Indonesia will continue influencing global prices.

📌 Ammonia prices may remain weak unless major buyers (India, Europe) re-enter the market.

📌 Amsul prices in the U.S. will likely stay firm, supported by steady agricultural demand.

Broader Petrochemical Context - February 2025

The​​​​ petrochemical market in February 2025, with naphtha, methanol, and jet fuel.

• Due to China’s high demand and refinery output constraints, Naphtha prices increased in Asia-Pacific.
• Methanol prices rose slightly in China, reflecting strength in the broader petrochemical sector.
• Jet fuel prices softened in Europe’s ARA hub as inventories grew, but Latin America’s Tupi crude reached a 16-month high.

1.Naphtha Market: Rising Prices in Asia-Pacific Due to Chinese Demand

Key Highlights:

• Asia-Pacific naphtha prices increased due to:

a. Higher demand from China’s petrochemical sector (used for plastic and chemical production).

b. Reduced refinery runs in the region, tightening supply.

• China remains the largest naphtha importer, supporting global demand.
• Higher naphtha prices impact fertilizer production costs, as ammonia and nitrogen-based fertilizers rely on natural gas and naphtha as feedstocks.

Outlook:

📌 Continued strong demand from China may keep naphtha prices elevated.

📌 If refinery runs increase, supply may improve, easing price pressures.

2. Methanol Market: Slight Price Increase in China Reflects Strength in Petrochemicals

Key Highlights:

• Methanol prices in China rose by 2 USD/MT, signaling stability in the petrochemical sector.
• Higher methanol prices impact chemical production, including:

a. Formaldehyde, acetic acid, and plastics.

b. Downstream petrochemical industries reliant on methanol derivatives.

• China’s methanol demand remains firm, driven by industrial and chemical sector consumption.

Outlook:

📌 Methanol prices may continue rising if petrochemical demand remains high.

📌 A slowdown in China’s economic activity could weaken demand and stabilize prices.

3. Jet Fuel Market: Softening in Europe, Strength in Latin America

Key Highlights:

• Europe’s Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub saw jet fuel prices soften, driven by:

a. Higher inventories and lower than expected demand.

b. Stable refinery output maintaining supply.

• Meanwhile, Latin America’s Tupi crude prices surged to a 16-month high, reflecting:

a. Robust regional energy demand.

b. Tighter supply from Brazilian crude exporters.

• Jet fuel demand varies by region, with Latin America showing resilience compared to Europe’s softening market.

Outlook:

📌 Europe’s jet fuel prices could remain soft if inventories stay high.

📌 Latin America’s strong crude prices may support energy sector growth.

Key Takeaways & Market Trends

📌 Naphtha prices increased in Asia-Pacific, driven by China’s high demand & reduced refinery output.

📌 Methanol prices rose slightly in China, indicating a strong petrochemical market.

📌 Jet fuel softened in Europe’s ARA hub, while Latin America’s Tupi crude hit a 16-month high.

March 2025 Market Outlook

📌 China’s demand will continue influencing naphtha and methanol pricing.

📌 Jet fuel prices in Europe may stay weak unless demand rises.

📌 Latin America’s energy sector could remain strong, supporting crude oil pricing.

References

1. Argus Fertilizer Reports - Argus Media
2. ICIS Fertilizer Market Analysis - ICIS.com
3. Profercy Nitrogen Weekly Reports - Profercy.com
4. S&P Global Commodity Insights - S&P Global
5. CRU Fertilizer Market Reports - CRU Group
6. European CBAM Regulations - European Commission
7. India Fertilizer Tenders & Trade Data - Fertilizer Association of India
8. Brazil Agro Market Data - Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture