September 2025 Fertilizer and Petrochemical Market Report

1.2. Regional and Policy Drivers

India

This month, the Indian market significantly influenced the global supply-demand equilibrium. The NFL and RCF’s high-volume tenders at USD 462–465/t CFR mobilized shippers across the Persian Gulf, China, and North Africa; however, inventory oversupply in the country (3.8 million tonnes by mid-September) and monsoon variability muted the urgency from buyers. The tender’s announcement and execution led to cascading price adjustments in regional hubs, with Persian Gulf producers withholding spot allocations and Chinese suppliers managing quotas to support internal price floors.

India’s policy remained laser-focused on input subsidy stability, further buffering domestic prices from international volatility.

Brazil

Brazilian imports rose sharply as the month progressed; first-half buying favored prompt shipments at USD 425–430/t CFR, particularly for soybean regions. Deferred deals faced softer values, and the impact of river logistics was acutely felt in lineups at Santos and Paranaguá. Brazil’s seasonal profile continued to anchor global spot trade, with September grain forecasts pushing last-minute reordering and speculative purchases for Q4.

Southeast Asia & China

Amsul and urea buyers in Southeast Asia delayed procurement as dealers expected further downside. Chinese export quotas remained in force, with September off-take at a multi-year low. Despite an abundant domestic stock, the policy aimed to protect local producers and stabilize food security pricing. China’s internal tender system allowed for targeted price supports and protected sector margins.

Europe

European buyers, facing high energy costs and policy scrutiny, held off on central buying, driving deals for Iranian and Black Sea-origin urea. EU anti-dumping investigations intensified margin pressure for Turkish, Ukrainian, and Russian exporters. Spot trade warnings and compliance checks have increased, amplifying the complexity of cross-border tenders.

Additional Insights

• Iranian urea exports maintained their pace, securing deals near USD 360–370/t FOB for October loadings, but struggled with sanctions-related payment delays and high shipping insurance premiums.
• Southeast Asian procurement remained slow, yet Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia showed late-month spot buying, anticipating Q4 need for rice and palm oil cycles.
• North and West African markets saw opportunistic buying at new lows, with Morocco positioning for early Q4 spot coverage.

References:

Argus Nitrogen Sep 2025, Weekly-Overview-25-09-2025, ARMAITI-MEX visuals

2.2. Export and Undertone Analysis

Persian Gulf:

By late September, Persian Gulf producers canceled or deferred spot allocations for October, except for a handful of term contract extensions to legacy clients in Southeast Asia, India, and Western Europe. Local demand for phosphate production, particularly in Iran (for DAP/MAP) and the UAE, has driven up the availability of merchant ammonia and increased competition for marginal export cargoes. With China’s demand oscillating around seasonal highs, Persian Gulf cargoes to East Asia were rerouted to value markets in India and Southeast Asia.

EU Importers:

European buyers scrambled for limited product, with Egyptian, Algerian, and Qatari cargoes all in short supply. Imports from Russia, both pipeline and Black Sea, were below plan due to technical outages and Ukrainian logistics bottlenecks. Dutch and German traders prioritized hand-to-mouth spot purchasing, suspending longer-term booking amid pricing uncertainty and new regulatory guidance.

Freight Market Developments:

Freight rates from the Persian Gulf to Brazil ranged from USD 22 to USD 24/t for 30–40kt MGC lots; however, vessel availability was sharply constrained due to the overlap of the grain season and port delays in Santos and Paranaguá. Persian Gulf to US Gulf rates climbed to USD 34–36/t, amplifying CIF costs and reducing the profitability of arbitrage windows. Movements to China cooled as phosphate blending in the Yangtze River basin slowed, and buyers shifted their focus to Q4 inventory build-up.

Expanded geographical coverage included extremely tight vessel availability across the Mediterranean, Black Sea, and Baltic routes, with demurrage and rerouting costs reaching multi-year highs.

2.3. Ammonia Demand and End-use

Agricultural Demand:

Ammonium phosphate blending (DAP/MAP) dominated the ammonia spot market in Southeast Asia and India, where importers booked large volumes to secure supply for the fourth quarter. In Europe and North Africa, MAP/DAP producers limited output and imported ammonia to fill supply shortfalls caused by idled production lines.

Industrial Demand:

Major industrial users in Europe and North America operated with minimal stocks and deferred procurement, betting on a late Q4 market correction. This move is increasingly seen as risky, as supply is expected to remain tight into November and December. Demand for ammonia in specialty chemical applications and hydrogen projects contributed to incremental market tightening, as producers shifted marginal volumes away from fertilizer to higher-margin industrial contracts.

Strategic Sourcing Trends:

Buyers increasingly pursued value-in-use contracts, real-time benchmarking, and locational arbitrage, with several traders utilizing multi-port booking, flexible discharge options, and adjusted insurance terms for origins in the Persian Gulf, North Africa, and the US Gulf of Mexico.

Emerging Trends and Sustainability:

Regulatory focus on low-carbon supply, emissions control, and process optimization prompted a modest but growing premium for ammonia produced using green hydrogen and low-emissions technologies, particularly among Japanese and Western European customers.

Expanded commentary should include analysis of regional procurement strategies, the adoption of digital contract platforms (blockchain-enabled trading), vessel line-up constraints, and strategic hedging against further supply disruptions.

References:

Argus Ammonia Sep 2025, CRU Ammonia Bulletins Sep 2025

Section III: Ammonium Sulphate and Nitrate Markets

3.1. Ammonium Sulphate and Nitrate Overview

Active export flows, a shifting center of gravity between Asia and South America, and a complex intersection of agricultural and industrial demand characterized the ammonium sulphate (AMSUL) market in September 2025. Despite ample global production capacity, region-by-region demand cycles and logistical bottlenecks kept price points volatile. Market sentiment tracked closely with seasonality, feedstock prices, and the changing mix of industrial versus agricultural offtake.

In China, AMSUL prices finished the month at USD 133–140/t FOB for standard-grade, a level reflecting both internal market softness and aggressive push for exports as local inventories ballooned. Monthly statistics reveal an impressive 29% year-over-year increase in outbound volume, with exports reaching 5.2 million metric tons in Q3, supporting reports of capacity overhang and heightened competition for global market share.

Compacted amsul—explicitly tailored for major importers like Brazil and the broader South American/SE Asian complex—traded at a notable premium, finishing September at USD 150–155/t FOB China. Demand was brisk in key destination markets, with price resilience attributed to limited logistic slots during Brazil’s soy preparation window and Turkish buying ahead of the Q4 cereal planting season.

The Northwest European (NWE) market experienced upward momentum for compacted amsul, pricing at USD 223–240/t by late September. France, Germany, and Belgium, constrained by high logistics costs and irregularities in inland waterways, increasingly relied on Rotterdam and Antwerp as import hubs. Barges and container flows showed some improvement after early-month congestion; however, many industrial buyers delayed procurement, betting on late-season softening.

Meanwhile, ammonium nitrate (AN) and calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN) continued to soften further. Launched initially as winter fill products for both construction and agriculture, weak demand persisted in Europe. Russian exporters, freed from immediate regulatory constraint, continued an aggressive program—pushing CAN and AN into both the EU and neighboring Black Sea and Eastern Mediterranean destinations. Pricing in Germany and Poland hovered below import parity levels, raising pressure on domestic manufacturers.

Potash Market Overview September 2025

Strategic commentary:

As Q3 closed, global potash trade was further influenced by:

• Russia’s success in redirecting significant export flows away from Europe toward Asia and Latin America is now estimated to account for a 25% share of the global market.
• Canadian Canpotex is adjusting allocations to serve premium markets first, while hedging rail and port logistics with new multi-modal contracts.
• A diverse mix of buyers using multi-currency tenders and volume-weighted contracts to manage input-cost risk, particularly where incremental currency depreciation threatened procurement budgets in Southeast Asia and Latin America.

4.2. Phosphate Market (DAP/MAP)

The global phosphate segment entered September on mixed footing. In the Americas, MAP (monoammonium phosphate) prices softened, with most spot deals concluding below USD 590/tonne CFR, as corn and wheat producers delayed their fall application programs and inventories ran above average. Blenders and importers held out for further discounts, particularly as Chinese, Russian, and Saudi Arabian cargoes entered the Gulf and the East Coast of the US.

India’s position as the world’s largest DAP importer remained unchanged. September contracts averaged USD 575–581/tonne CFR amid high carryover stock, slow monsoon progress, and late-season policy adjustments. Several international producers, including Morocco’s OCP and Saudi Arabia’s Ma’aden, competed directly for Indian tender volume. Indian buyers, cushioned by continued government subsidies, timed their reloads to capitalize on short-term price dips and currency arbitrage.

Within the United States, inland buyers favored barged DAP over rail shipments due to volatile crop weather and surge pricing, which created localized supply gaps in the Corn Belt. Blenders also diversified supply by picking up smaller lots at river lots, exploiting temporary spot-market softness during port decongestion events.

Regional developments:

• North Africa (Morocco, Tunisia) and West Africa (Nigeria) increased MAP and DAP exports to South American and European clients.
• Chinese producers, grappling with domestic quota enforcement, prioritized supply to long-term partners in Australia and Pakistan.
• Southeast Asian DAP/MAP demand was supported by regional rice and maize planting, but cautious buyers spread tenders across multiple months to hedge against possible Q4 price spikes and freight interruptions.

Visualization:

To illustrate these trade flows, an area chart (recommended as “Quarterly Seaborne Fertilizer Flows—Q3 2025”) should show:

• Potash volume rising steadily in Q3, reflecting increased flows to Latin America and Asia.
• MAP flows lagging potash as both softening demand and logistical constraints take effect.
• DAP trade remains steady, with India’s tender cycles creating larger periodic spikes.

Annotations should highlight major tender events (such as those in China, India, and Brazil), notable freight bottlenecks, and the effects of trade sanctions or quota changes.

References:

Argus Potash Sep 2025, CRU Potash Sep 2025 

Section V: Global Seaborne Trade and Logistics

5.1. Comparative Volumes (Q3 2025)

The third quarter of 2025 continued to affirm the importance of seaborne trade as a critical link in the global fertilizer supply chain. Demand fluctuations, supply constraints, and logistical challenges influenced the volume flows of major fertilizer commodities, which have distinct regional profiles.

• Trans-Pacific Freight: The typhoon season in Asia and ensuing land-based disruptions in Chinese ports, notably Shanghai and Ningbo, contributed to delays and surcharges for shipments to the Americas. Container scarcity compounded challenges for packaged fertilizer logistics, prompting shippers to turn to bulk vessel charters.
• Persian Gulf to Brazil: Vessel tightness on this route persisted as the local grains shipping season extended port stay durations in Santos, Paranaguá, and Vitória. Freight rates ranged from USD 22 to 24 per tonne, with cargo sizes typically 30-40 kilotonnes. The market saw sporadic tendering by large buyers to smooth delivery windows.
• Persian Gulf to US Gulf: Moderate increases in demand for ammonia and urea into the US Gulf supported freight rates at USD 34–36/t for 40-45kt vessels. Competition with grain exporters for vessel slots remained intense.
• Middle East to Thailand: Established at USD 21–23/t, freight rates benefited from improved scheduling but were vulnerable to Gulf weather events and port congestion at Laem Chabang.
• Russia (Baltic) to Mexico: Freight ranged from USD 40 to USD 44/t as winter fertilizer programs in Mexico commenced, depending on vessel availability and ice conditions in Baltic Sea ports.
• Black Sea (Ukraine) to EU Mediterranean: A strategically vital corridor, rates continued at USD 16–19/t amidst ongoing geopolitical risk and varying port access.
  

Freight Rate Table:

5.3. Strategic Export & Import Insights

Fertilizer export strategies during Q3 focused on flexible port options, multi-leg routes, and charter optimization to mitigate demurrage risks incurred during peak agricultural seasons in destination countries. Persian Gulf exporters are increasingly diversifying their vessel deployment toward Brazil and Southeast Asia in an effort to stabilize shipment volumes amid intermittent Indian buying pauses.

Importers adopted dynamic procurement strategies that leveraged spot market windows while negotiating term cargoes with clauses to accommodate shifting delivery schedules. Portfolio diversification—including sourcing from Russia, Belarus, and North African countries—helped buyers hedge against regional supply interruptions.

Port congestion relief in key South American terminals drove increased unloading productivity in late September, improving supply lead times just ahead of Q4 demand spikes. In contrast, certain Asian mega-ports faced capacity challenges, particularly those congested by imports of grains and containerized goods, which placed upward pressure on delivery times and contract prices.

5.4. Market Outlook and Key Risks

While volume growth trajectories point to an expanding global seaborne fertilizer trade, a series of risks continues to threaten smooth market functioning:

• Weather disruptions (typhoons, floods) in Asia-Pacific remain a wildcard for port and feeder logistics.
• Geopolitical tensions surrounding Black Sea access and EU trade policies may further constrain regional fertilizer supply chains.
• Energy price volatility could impact production economics and transport costs, driving price cascades with little warning.
• Regulatory shifts toward greener supply chains may increase compliance and certification requirements for exporters, potentially leading to temporary trade bottlenecks.

Procurement and logistics managers should factor these uncertainties into pricing models and contract negotiations for Q4 and into 2026.

References:

Argus Freight Market Bulletin Sep 2025, ARMAITI Urea Freight September Visuals

Section VII: Detailed Country Cases and Trade Strategies

7.1. India: Seasonal Strategies, Tender Impact

India remained a significant force in the September 2025 fertilizer market, as its government procurement schedules, subsidy structures, and monsoon timing dictated the pace and direction of global trade flows. The month was marked by protracted discussions around tender volumes, with the National Fertilizer Limited (NFL) and Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers (RCF) opening and closing high-volume buy tenders, all benchmarked to USD 462–465/tonne CFR.

Stockpiling was observed as an official strategy, with reported national inventories reaching 3.8 million tonnes by mid-September—well above seasonal averages. This buffer allowed the Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers to stagger significant buys, forcing Persian Gulf and Chinese producers to compete for preferred slots. Delayed and uneven monsoon patterns further complicated the timing and size of each tender, raising intra-month volatility as suppliers raced to forecast Indian demand.

India’s ammonia import volumes decreased this quarter, the result of sustained investment in new domestic urea capacity—an intentional government policy aimed at insulating the country against global swings in ammonia and urea prices. The rising domestic share in nitrogen supply is also a direct hedge against energy price volatility in world markets.

Strategic takeaways:

• Indian importers increasingly require flexible shipping and payment terms, leveraging their market power to shift demurrage risk and create rolling volume options with leading suppliers.
• Indian buying behavior provided both a floor and a cap for urea and ammonia FOB Persian Gulf prices throughout the month.

7.2. Brazil: Port and Line-up Management

Both agricultural and logistical factors influenced Brazilian trade dynamics in September 2025. The country’s major traders and importers focused on rapid, high-volume offloading—particularly in anticipation of peak soybean planting and corn cycle input needs. Multi-port strategies were commonplace, with shippers deliberately splitting cargo lots across Santos, Paranaguá, Itaqui, and selected northern ports. This approach successfully minimized demurrage, distributed port congestion risk, and captured arbitrage windows opened by last-minute spot MGC (medium gas carrier) vessel charters.

Soybean and corn cycles amplified these effects, as import fluctuations closely tracked crop forecasts, daily rainfall data, and forward sales for agri-commodity exports. Northern ports, such as São Luís and Itaqui, proved less congested, serving as valuable escape valves amid capacity crunches in the south.

Procurement was dominated by large-volume, index-linked contracts but supplemented by spot market purchases as weather, river drafts, and farmer order books dictated incremental needs.

Strategic takeaways:

• Brazilian buyers are increasingly favoring direct access to vessel lineups and arrival data, investing in digital port analytics and optimizing contract terms with real-time penalty/rebate clauses for berth timing.
• The country’s ag cooperatives and private importers often pooled volumes to negotiate freight, hedging against last-minute supply chain risks.

7.3. Europe: Imports, Gas, and Anti-Dumping

Europe faced a uniquely challenging landscape in September. The Russo-Ukrainian war, combined with EU green transition mandates, kept gas prices and volatility high. This forced fertilizer manufacturers to alternate between operating and idling ammonia and urea production assets, with direct implications for imports and in-region product blending.

Imports from the Baltic and Black Sea shifted sharply, as new anti-dumping litigation from the EU forced some Russian, Ukrainian, and Belarusian suppliers to divert urea shipments to Turkey, North Africa, and BRI regional partners. European buyers—cautious about price spikes—blended more ammonia with urea to optimize cost structures and energy intensity while adjusting to supply curtailments and environmental tariffs.

Policy incentives for green and lower-emission fertilizers have begun to shift the European demand profile, with early-adopting retailers and agribusinesses opting for product mixes that favor sustainability, despite modest premiums. Investment in terminal and tankage upgrades continued, targeting resilience against regulatory and geoeconomic shocks.

Strategic takeaways:

• European importers and retailers prioritized flexible, short-term supply contracts that offered options to roll or switch volumes in response to fluctuations in the gas and energy markets.
• New European Commission rules regarding origin certification and carbon border adjustment mechanisms have made due diligence and documentation a critical part of every shipment.

References:

Argus Tender Monitor Sep 2025, CRU Country Analytics Sep 2025

Demand/Supply Insights

• Crop-specialized Fertilizers: Integrated approaches (e.g., stabilized/controlled-release urea, enriched MAP blends) gained share in developed Asian and Latin American markets, as regulatory and cost drivers pushed farmers to optimize nutrient use efficiency.
• Seasonality Dynamics: Monsoon cycles (India), soybean/corn windows (Brazil and Argentina), and wheat/mid-season cereal programs (EU and Black Sea) all exerted a strong influence on logistical lead times, freight partnership formation, and just-in-time inventory management.
• Retail and Precision Ag: Larger buyers adopted more stratified contract terms and lot tracking, including integration with crop modelling software and remote application platforms.

Strategic Buyer and Supplier Trends

• Agile Sourcing: Today’s major buyers—especially co-ops and input distributors in Brazil, India, and Southeast Asia—utilize predictive analytics to match procurement with application schedules, taking into account local weather, freight, and government policy uncertainty.
• Supplier Innovation: Leading producers in the Persian Gulf, Russia, and North Africa diversified export routes, prioritized sustainability compliance, and invested in digital customer service as price volatility and shipping risk accelerated.
• Sustainability/Regulatory Pressure: Farmers faced mounting pressure (particularly in the EU and US) to adopt “greener” fertilizer choices, with early-adopter pilots for carbon-neutral or low-emissions ammonia and urea.

References:

CRU Product Strategy Sep 2025, Argus Weekly Analytics Sep 2025

Section IX: Conclusion

September 2025 proved to be a defining month for the global fertilizer and petrochemical sector—underscored by heightened volatility, shifting trade routes, logistical recalibration, and evolving regulatory landscapes. Throughout every product stream—urea, ammonia, potash, and ammonium sulphate—pricing was influenced by a new matrix of supply-side disruptions, unprecedented freight market dynamics, and the increasing complexity of international policy.

The Persian Gulf reaffirmed its centrality as the global price anchor, while India and Brazil set the tempo for procurement, inventory, and risk management across hemispheres. China’s quota management added strategic uncertainty, magnifying the importance of diversified sourcing and agile contract structures. Europe, meanwhile, continued to adapt under the dual pressures of gas price instability and regulatory intervention, rebalancing import channels and product mix.

Downstream, the correlation between weather impacts, freight congestion, and cropping cycles became even more pronounced. Innovative procurement—combining spot, contract, and index-linked purchases—emerged as the most effective hedge for both agribusinesses and national buyers. Sustainability and supply chain transparency further cemented their status as non-negotiables, not only to meet regulatory requirements but also in response to shifting buyer and public expectations.

Looking forward, the remainder of 2025 will require a more dynamic, technology-enabled approach to both trading and supply chain management. Armed with robust analytics, deeper partnerships, and increased scenario planning, market leaders are poised not merely to withstand future shocks but to capitalize on volatility for competitive advantage.

Producers, traders, and buyers are encouraged to prioritize risk management, logistics optimization, and sustainability compliance to secure volume, margin, and resilience in a world where traditional patterns are no longer a guarantee.

References

• Argus Nitrogen Weekly and Daily Bulletins, September 2025
• CRU Fertilizer Weekly Overview, September 2025
• Argus Ammonia Weekly Reports, September 2025
• Argus Potash Weekly Reports, September 2025
• CRU Product/Country Analytics, September 2025
• ARMAITI Daily Reports