Author: Saman Memarpour

Market Phase Comparison – November vs December 2025

Within the nitrogen complex, December reinforced a divergent product structure that had begun to emerge in late November. Urea prices stabilized after weeks of decline and gradually moved higher into January, with front-month paper signaling that sellers were no longer forced to discount aggressively to clear prompt availability. Ammonia, by contrast, remained structurally tight throughout the month, supported by ongoing supply constraints, limited spot availability, and resilient downstream demand from both fertilizer and industrial sectors. Sulphur, which had experienced an exceptional rally through November, entered December at elevated levels but began to encounter demand resistance, particularly in Asia, as affordability constraints limited spot buying—signaling the early stages of a corrective phase. Phosphate markets remained comparatively soft; however, the pace of decline slowed as importers shifted from outright deferral toward cautious, hand-to-mouth coverage in anticipation of Q1 seasonal demand.

Reference: Trading Economics – Urea & Fertilizer Prices

Product-Level Positioning – December 2025 Snapshot

Structural Forces Defining December 2025

Looking ahead, December closed with markets increasingly oriented toward January execution and Q1 2026 positioning, rather than backward-looking inventory clearance. While demand remains selective and highly price-sensitive, the month confirmed that the aggressive correction phase seen in November has largely run its course. Entering Q1 2026, market direction will be shaped by the timing and scale of India’s next demand signal, China’s export management strategy, Brazil’s purchasing confidence, and the persistence of freight tightness across key trade routes. In this environment, price volatility is expected to remain elevated, but within a more disciplined and structurally supported framework than during the November correction.

Reference: International Fertilizer Association (IFA) – Market Context

NITROGEN – UREA MARKET (December 2025)

Global Urea Price Overview

The global urea market entered December 2025 still anchored by the sharp correction that unfolded in November, with market participants approaching the month in a highly defensive posture. Buyers across major importing regions remained cautious following the abrupt re-pricing triggered by India’s November tender and Brazil’s sudden withdrawal from spot liquidity. At the same time, producers and traders focused primarily on defending reduced netbacks, rather than pushing volume, after FOB values had already adjusted materially lower. As a result, early December was characterized by low transactional liquidity, limited tender activity, and subdued spot demand across nearly all major CFR destinations.

Reference:   Trading Economics – Urea Prices

Global Urea Market Conditions – Early December 2025

Reference: International Fertilizer Association (IFA) – Market Context

Despite this muted demand environment, December differed fundamentally from November, as prices stopped falling across most benchmarks. FOB values in the Middle East, North Africa, and the Black Sea, as well as CFR prices into Brazil, India, and the United States, stabilized within relatively narrow ranges. This stabilization indicated that the market had absorbed mainly the November shock and that incremental selling pressure had diminished. Sellers were no longer forced to discount aggressively to clear prompt availability. At the same time, buyers—although still cautious—began to recognize that further downside was becoming increasingly limited without a new demand-side catalyst.

Reference: International Fertilizer Association (IFA) – Fertilizer Market Context

Directional Price Behavior – November vs December

Reference: FAO – Fertilizer Statistics Database

A defining feature of December was the clear roll from December pricing into higher January and front-month paper values, particularly visible in granular urea assessments. This transition reflected a meaningful shift in market psychology. Instead of focusing on clearing remaining December inventory at discounted levels, both buyers and sellers began to orient pricing toward Q1 availability. Such behavior is typically observed when a corrective phase is approaching exhaustion: market participants accept that the bulk of the downside adjustment has already occurred and begin repositioning for future demand rather than chasing spot bargains.

Reference: ICIS – Fertilizer Market Updates

Paper Market Signal – December to January Transition

Reference: ICIS – Fertilizer Market Updates

This paper-led re-pricing did not imply a sudden recovery in physical demand. Instead, it signaled a rebalancing of expectations. Importers remained selective and price-sensitive, but the willingness to wait indefinitely for lower prices diminished as freight tightened, sellers limited downside flexibility, and January loading windows began to fill. In this context, December marked a transition from a disorderly correction toward a more structured and disciplined pricing environment, setting the stage for heightened volatility—but within more explicit bounds—heading into Q1 2026.

Reference: World Bank – Commodity Markets Outlook

Consolidated Granular Urea Paper Benchmarks – December 2025

Reference: FAO – Fertilizer Statistics Database

Pricing Phase Comparison – December 2025

Reference: FAO – Fertilizer Statistics Database

Market Interpretation – What the December Transition Actually Signals

The December transition from prompt pricing to January paper values does not reflect a sudden improvement in end-user demand. Instead, it highlights a shift in pricing mechanics:

• Prompt oversupply pressure eased after November’s correction
• Sellers regained leverage as downside flexibility diminished.
• Freight and timing constraints became more influential than spot bids.
• Forward availability, not distressed liquidation, began to define price discovery.
  
  

The strongest signals emerged from the US Gulf and Middle East FOB benchmarks, where January paper pricing moved materially higher despite continued caution in physical buying. Historically, this pattern indicates that the market is transitioning from a correction phase into a range-bound, structurally supported environment, rather than entering a new bullish cycle.

Reference: World Bank – Commodity Markets Outlook

Regional Interpretation & Market Logic

Brazil CFR

Brazil’s CFR benchmark stabilized first, reflecting its role as the global “stress test” market. Early December values near USD 390 indicated severe demand caution; however, the late-month move into USD 406–408 on January paper suggests that sellers and traders no longer viewed sub-USD 400 CFR as sustainable for Q1 deliveries, even in a liquidity-constrained environment.

Reference: Trading Economics – Urea Prices

Egypt FOB (Europe)

Egypt maintained a structural premium throughout December due to European demand continuity ahead of CBAM implementation. The gradual firming to USD 440–450 FOB confirmed that Europe remained insulated from the broader bearish tone in the Americas, reinforcing regional divergence in the global urea market.

Reference: International Fertilizer Association (IFA) – Market Context

Middle East FOB

The Middle East FOB paper showed one of the most evident signs that the November correction had run its course. The transition from ~USD 385 to above USD 405 on the January paper reflected both disciplined selling behavior and improved freight-adjusted netbacks. This shift effectively re-established the Middle East as the marginal price setter for early Q1 trade flows.

Reference: ICIS – Fertilizer Market Updates

US Gulf FOB

The US Gulf benchmark delivered the strongest rebound signal during December. After bottoming in early December, prices recovered sharply into the high-USD 370s and upper-USD 380s, reflecting inventory drawdown, improved export parity, and tightening logistics. Historically, such a move often precedes broader stabilization across Atlantic Basin markets.

Reference: USDA AMS – Fertilizer Market Reports

AMMONIA MARKET (December 2025)

Market Overview

Ammonia remained the strongest and most structurally resilient nitrogen product throughout December 2025, further widening the divergence between ammonia and urea markets that first became evident in November. While urea prices entered a stabilization and forward-repricing phase after a demand-driven correction, ammonia markets remained supply-led, supported by persistent availability constraints and firm downstream consumption. As a result, ammonia prices remained elevated, with minimal volatility, largely insulated from the broader nitrogen market's softness.

Reference:  ICIS – Ammonia Market Overview

The defining characteristic of the ammonia market in December was the absence of adequate demand elasticity. Unlike urea—where buyers can defer purchases or draw down inventories—ammonia consumers, particularly phosphate producers and industrial users, operate with limited substitution options and lower inventory flexibility. This structural feature meant that even as global fertilizer sentiment remained cautious, ammonia buyers were compelled to maintain coverage, reinforcing price stability across regions.

Reference:  International Fertilizer Association (IFA) – Nitrogen Fertilizer Market Context

Global Ammonia Supply Structure – December 2025

Reference: ICIS – Ammonia Supply & Operations Updates

Production disruptions continued to constrain supply during December, limiting the volume of uncommitted ammonia available to the spot market. As a result, contractual trade dominated price formation, reducing the influence of opportunistic buying or short-term sentiment shifts. This structural tightness was particularly evident in the Atlantic Basin, where limited availability into Europe and the US Gulf reinforced elevated CFR benchmarks despite subdued activity elsewhere in the fertilizer complex.

Reference: World Bank – Commodity Markets Outlook

Key Ammonia Price Benchmarks – December 2025

Reference: World Bank – Commodity Markets Outlook

Middle East FOB ammonia remained firm throughout December as producers faced no commercial incentive to discount. With firm contractual commitments and steady downstream demand from phosphate producers, Middle Eastern suppliers maintained disciplined export strategies. The absence of excess spot volumes kept FOB values elevated, reinforcing the region’s role as a key stabilizing origin in the global ammonia trade.

Reference: ICIS – Ammonia Market Updates

In Europe, ammonia prices remained stable despite broader softness in the fertilizer market. Importers prioritized security of supply over price optimization, particularly given the limited availability of spot cargoes and the high operational dependence of European downstream industries on ammonia feedstock. As a result, December saw minimal spot trading, with prices anchored by long-term contractual frameworks.

Reference: International Fertilizer Association (IFA) – European Nitrogen Market Context

Similarly, the US Gulf ammonia market remained firm throughout December—tight domestic availability, combined with constrained imports and steady industrial demand, limited downside risk. Unlike urea, where inventories and weather can rapidly alter demand patterns, ammonia demand in the US Gulf remained structurally inelastic, reinforcing price stability into year-end.

Reference: ICIS – US Ammonia Market Analysis

Downstream Demand Support – December 2025

Reference: IFA – Fertilizer & Industrial Nitrogen Demand

Ammonia Market Risk Matrix – Early 2026

Reference: World Bank – Commodity Risk Assessment

Ammonia Market Conclusion

In December 2025, ammonia’s role as the structural anchor of the nitrogen complex was reinforced. While urea transitioned into stabilization and forward repricing, ammonia remained supply-constrained, contract-driven, and largely immune to short-term sentiment shifts. This divergence underscores the importance of treating ammonia as a fundamentally different market—one where operational reliability and supply availability dominate price formation far more than spot demand dynamics.

Reference: International Fertilizer Association (IFA) – Nitrogen Market Context

SULPHUR MARKET (December 2025)

Market Dynamics

Sulphur entered December 2025 at historically elevated price levels, carrying strong bullish momentum from November’s rally. That rally was driven by a combination of tight supply, maintenance-related production constraints, and aggressive restocking by downstream consumers—particularly in the phosphate fertilizer chain. As a result, early December pricing remained elevated across key CFR destinations, with market sentiment still shaped by concerns over availability rather than immediate demand weakness.

Reference:  Trading Economics – Sulphur Prices

As December progressed, however, the market began to exhibit clear signs of demand resistance, marking a shift from supply-driven rally to affordability-driven reassessment. This was most evident in China, where elevated sulphur prices increasingly strained sulphuric acid margins and reduced buyers' willingness to chase spot cargoes at prevailing levels. Spot activity slowed, bid intensity weakened, and price momentum began to decelerate, even though underlying supply constraints had not entirely disappeared.

Reference:  ICIS – Sulphur Market Updates

Sulphur Price Behavior – November vs December 2025

Reference: Trading Economics – Sulphur Prices

While supply remained constrained through much of December, incremental improvements on the supply side began to alter market expectations. The easing of some maintenance schedules and improved visibility on exports reduced immediate fears of severe shortages. This shift did not trigger a collapse in prices; instead, it signaled a transition from an aggressive rally phase to a corrective adjustment, in which price direction becomes increasingly sensitive to downstream demand rather than headline supply risks.

Reference: ICIS – Sulphur Market Commentary

Importantly, December did not mark a reversal of sulphur’s structural importance within the fertilizer complex. Phosphate producers continued to consume sulphur at steady rates, but their purchasing behavior became more selective. Buyers prioritized contract volumes and deferred discretionary spot purchases, reinforcing the idea that the market was entering anormalization phase, rather than experiencing a fundamental demand collapse.

Reference: FAO – Fertilizer Inputs & Phosphate Production Context

Key Drivers Shaping the December Sulphur Market

Reference: FAO – Fertilizer Statistics Database

Outlook

Looking ahead, sulphur is expected to correct from peak levels during early Q1 2026, as the market fully digests the easing of supply constraints and adjusts to more disciplined downstream buying behavior. This correction is likely to be orderly rather than abrupt, reflecting the absence of an actual oversupply scenario and the continued importance of sulphur within the phosphate fertilizer value chain.

Reference: World Bank – Commodity Markets Outlook

Despite the expected correction, sulphur prices are projected to remain structurally supported above mid-2025 averages. Ongoing phosphate production requirements, limited inventory flexibility, and the lingering fragility of global sulphur logistics are expected to prevent a return to pre-rally price levels in the near term. Volatility is therefore likely to remain elevated, particularly if demand from the phosphate sector accelerates or if new supply disruptions emerge.

Reference: FAO – Fertilizer Statistics & Input Costs

Sulphur Market Conclusio

December 2025 represented a pivot point for the sulphur market. The month marked the transition from a supply-driven rally to a demand-constrained normalization phase, in which affordability and downstream margins regained influence over price formation. While upside momentum has clearly slowed, the underlying market structure remains supportive, positioning sulphur for a controlled correction rather than a deep downturn as the market moves into Q1 2026.

Reference: ICIS – Sulphur Market Overview

FREIGHT MARKET (Urea) – December 2025

Market Overview

Freight markets were a defining variable in urea price formation during December 2025, playing a far more active role than in most preceding months. While underlying urea demand remained cautious, logistics costs increasingly dictated landed price competitiveness, often overriding apparent FOB price advantages. Seasonal vessel tightness, sanctions-related premiums, and route-specific constraints combined to create a freight environment that effectively established price floors in several key importing regions.

Reference: Baltic Exchange – Freight Market Information

A convergence of factors shaped December freight dynamics. Year-end vessel repositioning, holiday-related delays, and weather-linked disruptions reduced spot vessel availability, particularly for Atlantic Basin routes. At the same time, sanctions-related risk premiums and insurance costs continued to differentiate freight economics by origin, materially affecting netbacks and CFR parity calculations. As a result, freight ceased to be a neutral input and instead became astructural constraint on price declines, especially into Brazil, Turkey, and the US Gulf.

Reference: Baltic Exchange – Freight Market Information

Indicative Urea Freight Rates – Mid December 202

Reference: Baltic Exchange – Freight Market Information

These freight spreads explain why FOB price movements alone were insufficient to trigger renewed CFR price declines in December. In several cases, sellers faced a hard limit on further discounts once freight was applied, as landed prices would otherwise fall below viable trade economics. This dynamic was evident in Brazil, where freight-adjusted costs prevented CFR prices from breaking materially below USD 390–400 despite weak importer demand.

Reference: World Bank – Commodity Markets Outlook

Freight as a Competitiveness Filter – December 2025

Reference: FAO – Fertilizer Trade & Logistics Context

The December freight structure also contributed to regional divergence in urea pricing. Origins with favorable freight economics—such as the Middle East to Brazil and Egypt to Europe—maintained price discipline, while higher-cost routes effectively priced themselves out of specific markets. This reinforced the late-December shift toward forward pricing and reduced the likelihood of disorderly spot liquidation.

Reference: International Fertilizer Association (IFA) – Market Context

Outlook

Freight markets are expected to remain tight into early January 2026, as seasonal vessel constraints and year-end positioning effects persist. While some normalization is anticipated later in Q1, the pace of easing is likely to be gradual rather than abrupt. As long as vessel availability remains constrained, freight will continue to act as a stabilizing force for CFR urea prices, particularly in long-haul trade routes.

Reference: Baltic Exchange – Freight Market Information

The downside risk to freight rates primarily stems from a sharp slowdown in global bulk trade or a rapid increase in vessel availability. Conversely, any escalation in geopolitical risk, weather disruptions, or volatility in fuel costs could extend tightness and reinforce freight’s role as a price-support mechanism well into Q1 2026

Reference: World Bank – Commodity Transport & Risk Outlook

Freight Market Conclusion

December 2025 confirmed that freight was not merely a cost component but a core determinant of urea market structure. By limiting arbitrage opportunities and reinforcing CFR price floors, freight dynamics played a central role in stabilizing the global urea market following November’s correction. Entering Q1 2026, freight conditions will remain a critical variable shaping regional competitiveness, trade flow viability, and price volatility across the nitrogen complex.

Reference: Baltic Exchange – Freight Market Information

PETROCHEMICAL MARKET OVERVIEW (December 2025)

Market Context

Global petrochemical markets in December 2025 were shaped primarily by energy price volatility and pronounced regional demand divergence. While crude oil and gas markets remained volatile amid geopolitical uncertainty and seasonal demand factors, downstream petrochemical segments responded unevenly. As a result, pricing dynamics across methanol, polymers, and aromatics were increasingly driven by feedstock economics and regional operating margins, rather than uniform demand growth.

Reference: ICIS – Petrochemical Market Overview

December did not deliver a synchronized directional move across petrochemicals. Instead, markets exhibited segmented behavior, with specific products under pressure from margin compression, while others remained supported by cost pass-through and logistical constraints. This divergence reinforced the importance of analyzing petrochemicals through a chain-by-chain lens, rather than as a single homogeneous market.

Reference: World Bank – Commodity Markets Outlook (Energy & Chemicals)

Methanol Market

Methanol markets remained under pressure throughout December, particularly in Asia. Weak margins for Chinese methanol-to-olefins (MTO) operators constrained operating rates and reduced incremental methanol demand. As a result, spot methanol prices struggled to gain traction despite relatively stable feedstock costs in some regions.

Reference:   ICIS – Methanol Market Updates

Outside China, methanol markets showed greater resilience, supported by contractual demand and regional supply balances. However, the lack of strong pull from the MTO sector limited any sustained upside momentum. December, therefore, reinforced methanol’s position as one of the most margin-sensitive segments of the petrochemical complex.

Reference: International Energy Agency (IEA) – Chemical Feedstocks Outlook

Methanol Market Drivers – December 2025

Reference: ICIS – Methanol Market Updates

Polymer Markets (PE / PP)

Polymer markets displayed mixed regional trends during December. In Europe, polyethylene and polypropylene prices were supported by higher energy costs, logistics constraints, and disciplined production rates. Producers focused on margin protection rather than volume growth, helping stabilize prices despite muted end-user demand.

Reference: ICIS – Polyethylene Markets, ICIS – Polypropylene Markets

In contrast, Asian polymer markets—particularly China—remained under pressure due to oversupply and cautious downstream consumption. New capacity additions and competitive export offers limited pricing power, reinforcing regional divergence within the polymer chain.

Reference: ICIS – Asian Polymer Market Analysis

Polymer Market Snapshot – December 2025

Reference: ICIS – Global Polymer Market Updates

Aromatics Market

Aromatics markets in December were driven more by crude oil and energy price movements than by downstream consumption trends. Benzene prices remained relatively firm in regions where refinery operating rates were constrained, while paraxylene (PX) and toluene showed more muted behavior due to adequate supply and cautious demand.

Reference: ICIS – Aromatics Market Updates

This cost-driven dynamic highlighted the continued sensitivity of aromatics to upstream energy markets, reinforcing their role as a transmission channel between crude oil volatility and downstream chemical pricing.

Reference: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) – Energy Market Analysis

Petrochemicals and Fertilizer Market Linkages

Although petrochemical markets are distinct from fertilizers, December highlighted several vital linkages. Energy volatility influenced ammonia production costs, while the weakness of the methanol and polymer markets reinforced cautious sentiment across nitrogen-related value chains. At the same time, relatively firm aromatic prices underscored the broader influence of crude oil on the economics of industrial chemicals.

Reference: World Bank – Commodity Markets Outlook

Petrochemical Market Conclusion

In December 2025, it was confirmed that petrochemical markets were operating in a fragmented, margin-driven environment. Weak demand in some segments, particularly methanol and Asian polymers, contrasted with cost-supported stability in Europe and parts of the aromatics chain. As the market enters Q1 2026, petrochemical pricing is expected to remain closely tied to energy markets, with limited scope for broad-based recovery absent a clear improvement in downstream demand.

Reference: ICIS – Petrochemical Market Overview

MARKET OUTLOOK – Q1 2026

Integrated Market Outlook

Entering Q1 2026, global fertilizer and petrochemical markets are transitioning from the post-correction stabilization phase observed in December into a period of heightened sensitivity to demand signals, logistics constraints, and policy decisions. While the sharp downside adjustment seen in November appears complete mainly, market conditions remain fragile rather than bullish, with price direction expected to be shaped by discrete catalysts rather than broad-based demand recovery.

Reference: World Bank – Commodity Markets Outlook

Across the fertilizer complex, Q1 2026 is expected to be characterized by product-level divergence. Urea enters the quarter stabilized but inherently volatile; ammonia remains structurally firm into January; sulphur is positioned for a corrective adjustment from peak levels; phosphates approach a gradual stabilization phase; and freight continues to act as a decisive swing factor for CFR pricing and regional competitiveness.

Reference: International Fertilizer Association (IFA) – Global Market Context

Ammonia

Ammonia is expected to remain firm through January 2026, supported by structural supply tightness, limited spot availability, and resilient downstream demand from fertilizer and industrial sectors. The market remains predominantly contract-driven, limiting short-term price volatility and insulating ammonia from broader shifts in nitrogen sentiment.

Reference: ICIS – Ammonia Market Overview

The first credible correction window is anticipated in February–March 2026, contingent on the successful restart of production units and improved global availability. Delays or new outages represent a clear upside risk, while smooth restarts would allow prices to soften in a controlled manner rather than collapse.

Reference: World Bank – Commodity Markets Outlook

Sulphur

Sulphur enters Q1 2026 positioned for a corrective phase following the exceptional November rally. December’s demand resistance—particularly from China—signals that affordability constraints are reasserting influence over price formation. As supply visibility improves and panic buying subsides, prices are expected to adjust lower from peak levels.

Reference: Trading Economics – Sulphur Prices

However, the correction is expected to be orderly rather than disruptive, as structural support from the phosphate value chain and limited inventory flexibility prevent a return to mid-2025 lows. Volatility is therefore likely to remain elevated, especially if downstream phosphate demand strengthens.

Reference: FAO – Fertilizer Inputs & Statistics

Phosphate

Phosphate markets are expected to stabilize gradually in early Q1 2026, with recovery potential emerging unevenly across regions. India’s subsidy clarity and procurement timing remain the primary upside catalysts for DAP, while Brazil’s Safrinha season will be decisive for MAP demand.

Reference: International Fertilizer Association (IFA) – Global Phosphate Outlook

Any recovery is likely to be measured rather than sharp, constrained by cautious importer behavior and the absence of supply shocks. Elevated input costs—particularly ammonia and sulphur—should continue to support price floors, limiting downside risk.

Reference: ICIS – Phosphates Market Updates

Freigh

Freight will remain a key swing factor in Q1 2026, particularly for urea. Tight vessel availability and route-specific constraints are expected to persist into early January, continuing to define CFR price floors and regional competitiveness.

Reference: Baltic Exchange – Freight Market Information

While some easing is anticipated later in Q1, the normalization path is likely to be gradual. Any geopolitical escalation, weather disruption, or volatility in fuel costs could prolong tightness and reinforce freight’s stabilizing influence on fertilizer prices

Reference: World Bank – Commodity Transport & Risk Outlook

Q1 2026 Scenario Framework

Base Case (Most Likely)

Reference: World Bank – Commodity Markets Outlook

Risk Scenarios

Reference: FAO – Fertilizer Market Risk Indicators

Outlook Conclusion

Q1 2026 is expected to be a structurally sensitive quarter, defined less by broad demand recovery and more by event-driven price discovery. While the aggressive correction phase appears complete, markets remain exposed to volatility stemming from tenders, policy decisions, and logistics constraints. In this environment, strategic positioning, timing, and freight awareness will be critical for navigating price risk and trade execution across the fertilizer and petrochemical complex.

Reference: International Fertilizer Association (IFA) – Market Context

Conclusion

December 2025 confirmed that global fertilizer and petrochemical markets had successfully transitioned away from the November shock-driven correction into a more disciplined, structurally balanced environment. Unlike November—when price discovery was dominated by abrupt demand shocks, forced liquidation, and rapid sentiment shifts—December was defined by consolidation, forward re-pricing, and regional divergence. While underlying demand remained cautious and highly selective, price behavior across most products suggested the market had mainly absorbed the downside adjustment and established clearer near-term reference points.

Reference: International Fertilizer Association (IFA) – Global Market Context

Across the nitrogen complex, December highlighted the importance of structural differentiation rather than uniform market movement. Urea stabilized and began to reprice higher on January paper; ammonia remained firmly supply-led and insulated from broader weakness; sulphur transitioned from an exceptional rally into a controlled normalization phase; and phosphates approached stabilization under the influence of cost support and seasonal demand expectations. This divergence underscores that fertilizer markets are increasingly driven by product-specific fundamentals rather than synchronized cycles.

Reference: World Bank – Commodity Markets Outlook

Freight emerged as one of the most decisive variables shaping December outcomes. Rather than acting as a passive cost component, logistics constraints actively influenced CFR pricing, origin competitiveness, and trade feasibility. Seasonal vessel tightness, route-specific premiums, and sanctions-related costs reinforced freight’s role as a price-floor mechanism, particularly for urea flows into Brazil, India, and the Atlantic Basin. This dynamic materially reduced the risk of disorderly price declines despite weak spot demand.

Reference: Baltic Exchange – Freight Market Information

December 2025 – Key Market Takeaways by Segment

Reference: FAO – Fertilizer Statistics Database

Strategic Implications Entering Q1 2026

Reference: International Fertilizer Association (IFA) – Global Market Context



Final Assessment

December 2025 marked the end of the correction phase and the beginning of a more structurally driven market regime. While demand recovery remains incomplete, the market’s behavior signals improved balance and reduced downside risk. As Q1 2026 unfolds, success will depend less on predicting absolute price direction and more on understanding structural constraints, logistics dynamics, and event-driven catalysts across the fertilizer and petrochemical landscape.

Reference: FAO – Fertilizer Market Context

REFERENCES



• Argus Media – Global Fertilizer & Petrochemical Pricing
• CRU Group – Fertilizers & Metals Market Analysis
• Armaiti Mercantile Exchange (Armaiti MEX)
• Marlen Group – Market Analytics
• International Fertilizer Association (IFA)
• World, Commodity Markets
• FAO Fertilizer Statistics
• Trading Economics – Urea
• Trading Economics – Sulphur
• ICIS Fertilizers
• ICIS Ammonia
• ICIS Phosphates
• ICIS Petrochemicals
• Baltic Exchange Freight Data
• European Commission – CBAM
• USDA AMS Fertilizer Reports