Fertilizer & Petrochemical Market Report

Executive Summary

November 2025 marked a decisive shift in global fertilizer and petrochemical dynamics, with pricing, liquidity, freight, and trade flows reshaped by events in India, China, Europe, and the Middle East. The month began with relative stability but quickly transitioned into a period of synchronized correction across nitrogen and phosphate markets, alongside a powerful rally in sulphur and continued tightness in ammonia. These developments occurred against a backdrop of volatile energy markets, shifting geopolitical pressures, and lower-than-expected demand in major consuming regions, including Brazil, Southeast Asia, and the United States

.Reference: World Bank – Commodity Markets Outlook

A defining event wasIndia’s large November urea tender, awarded at USD 418–420 CFR, significantly below market expectations. This single procurement cycle set the global ceiling for CFR prices and forced a broad realignment in FOB values from the Middle East, North Africa, China, and the Black Sea. The tender also reduced short-term demand visibility, as India secured sufficient volumes to cover a substantial portion of its Q1 2026 requirements, prompting sellers worldwide to lower their offers.

Reference: Trading Economics – Urea Prices

At the same time,China re-entered the export market with a tightly controlled 600,000-ton quota, introducing new competitive pressure into an already softening global environment. Although Chinese tons were fragmented across smaller allocations and faced logistical bottlenecks, the psychological impact on global pricing was immediate—buyers expected more supply. At the same time, sellers struggled to maintain offer levels in the Middle East and the Black Sea.

Reference: FAO Fertilizer Statistics Database

TheBrazilian market weakened sharply, with CFR values falling from the high USD 420s into the USD 390s by mid-to-late November. This decline was driven by currency depreciation, subdued import demand, and higher inventories held by key distributors and blenders. Seasonal demand was also weaker than average, with many Brazilian buyers postponing purchases in expectation of further declines following India’s tender and China’s re-entry.

Reference: International Fertilizer Association (IFA)

In contrast,European buyers remained active, rushing to secure urea, nitrates, and UAN ahead of the CBAM implementation scheduled for January 2026. This created an unusual divergence: while global markets turned bearish, Europe supported elevated FOB values from Egypt and Algeria, with some transactions reaching USD 500–507 FOB before easing later in the month.

Reference: European Commission – Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)

The ammonia market experienced aglobal shortage, driven by Trinidad shutdowns, US Gulf production constraints, and strong downstream demand from industrial and fertilizer producers. FOB Middle East ammonia surged to USD 530, with price stability in Europe and the US Gulf maintained due to limited spot availability.

Reference: ICIS – Ammonia Market Overview

In sulphur,prices rallied aggressively, supported by Russia’s continued export restrictions, Middle East maintenance, and firm demand from phosphate producers in China and Indonesia. China’s domestic sulphur prices climbed to multi-year highs, reinforcing bullish sentiment and widening the import arbitrage.

Reference: TradingView – Global Sulphur Price Chart

Phosphate markets—particularlyDAP and MAP—moved in the opposite direction. India reduced DAP intake, Brazil deferred MAP purchases, and China maintained tight export controls. Prices fell across most major regions despite elevated input costs from sulphur and ammonia, signaling demand weakness and oversupply fundamentals.

Reference: FAO – Phosphate Fertilizer Market Report

Freight markets stabilized in November, with slight declines on the Middle East–Brazil, ME–US Gulf, and China–India routes, driven by improved vessel availability. However, the Baltic and Black Sea regions remained structurally tight due to winter season constraints and longer transit times to key markets

.Reference: Baltic Exchange – Freight Market Indicators

Overall, the November 2025 landscape can be summarized as

• Bearish: Urea, phosphates
• Bullish: Ammonia, sulphur
• Stable but tight: Freight
• Regionally divergent: Europe remained strong; Brazil weakened; India anchored global prices; China introduced uncertainty with export management.

1.2 Visual Price Trends

Brazil CFR – November Price Decline

Brazil’s CFR market experienced the steepest decline among major regions, dropping by nearly USD 30–35/MT over three weeks. This was driven by a weak BRL, cautious importers, and China’s re-entry.

Reference: IFA – Fertilizer Market Trends

The Middle East granular urea market experienced a decisive sentiment reversal in November 2025, triggered primarily by India’s unexpectedly low tender result. Early in the month, producers were confident they could maintain a USD 415–417 FOB floor, supported by stable demand from Europe and scattered inquiries from Latin America and Africa. However, this stability collapsed after India awarded its 1.56 Mt tender at USD 418–420 CFR, significantly reducing netbacks and forcing Middle Eastern suppliers to reassess their offer levels immediately.

As traders recalculated post-tender realizations, market resistance intensified. Buyers in Brazil, Southeast Asia, and Turkey quickly rejected offers aboveUSD 410, anticipating additional downward pressure from China’s renewed export activity and weakening CFR benchmarks globally. By mid-November, transactional levels typically ranged from USD 405 to 412 FOB, signaling the end of the early-month firmness.

The market softened further toward month-end as additional Chinese prilled parcels entered the market, freight rates eased slightly on ME → Brazil and ME → US Gulf routes, and sentiment deteriorated in Brazil—one of the Middle East’s key demand drivers. By November 17, the Armaiti daily reports and Argus assessments aligned atUSD 398–405 FOB, marking a near-USD 15–20 decline from the month’s initial highs.

Fundamentally, the region moved from a position of strength to one of defensive pricing within three weeks. The combination of

• India’s tender ceiling,
• China’s quota-driven export relief,
• Soft Brazilian liquidity, and
• Easing freight markets,
  
  

Created an environment in which Middle Eastern producers were no longer able to defend the psychologically important USD 410 level. This re-pricing also reshaped global flows, making the Middle East more competitive relative to Iran and the Black Sea, and re-establishing it as the marginal price setter for CFR markets into early December 2025.

Reference: FAO – Fertilizer Statistics Portal

US Gulf FOB – Weakest Major Market in November

The US Gulf (NOLA) urea market stood out as the weakest-performing primary global market in November 2025, with a sustained, uninterrupted downward trend throughout the month. Early November values around USD 398/st quickly lost momentum as domestic demand remained muted and no seasonal catalyst emerged to absorb product already sitting in river terminals.

A combination of soft agricultural demand, mild weather across the core Midwest, and robust inventories across retail distribution channels prevented any meaningful price recovery. With farmers delaying applications and wholesalers prioritizing inventory reduction ahead of year-end, urea faced a structural lack of buying pressure during a period that typically brings some winter-prep purchasing. This absence of farmgate pull led river and barge markets to trade in increasingly narrow, downward-biased ranges

.The pressure intensified mid-month after theIndian tender fixed global CFR at USD 418–420, dragging global sentiment lower. As international CFR benchmarks weakened, traders reduced their bids for imported urea into coastal terminals. Simultaneously, Brazilian CFR values falling toward the USD 395/MT range eliminated any export-driven arbitrage opportunities from the US Gulf, further depressing demand from traders.

By mid-November, barge assessments slipped toUSD 370–372/st, with some distressed transactions reportedly clearing even lower as sellers sought liquidity. By the final week of November, US Gulf granular urea was assessed at USD 365–370/st, marking one of the steepest regional month-over-month corrections globally.

The US Gulf’s weakness has broader implications

• It undercut ME and Iran’s netbacks, contributing to global bearishness.
• It signaled weak end-user demand heading into winter.
• It reinforced expectations of continued pressure into early December unless weather or export economics shift materially.
  
  

Reference: USDA – Fertilizer Price Dashboard

1.3 Regional Market Insights

Persian Gulf – Market Loses Steam After India Tender

The Persian Gulf urea market, traditionally the world’s most influential origin for granular urea, began in November 2025 with a strong upward bias. Early-month sentiment was supported by robust pre-CBAM European buying, solid inquiries from North and West Africa, and limited turnarounds among regional producers. These dynamics allowed Persian Gulf FOB values to stabilize around USD 415–417, levels producers were confident they could defend due to healthy demand across Mediterranean and western Asian outlets.

The inflection point arrived mid-month when India’s state trading companies awarded their tender at USD 418–420 CFR, significantly below market expectations. Because India is the most critical buyer of Persian Gulf granular urea, the netback calculation immediately pushed realizations into the USD 400–405 FOB range. This removed the month’s bullish foundation and rapidly shifted negotiation power to buyers.

Throughout the second week of November, producers initially resisted the drop, maintaining USD 410–412 FOB offers based on strong early-month sales into Europe. However, importers—particularly in Brazil, East Africa, and Southeast Asia—recognized the implications of the tender and withdrew at lower bid levels. This mismatch created a rapid market correction, with several traders reporting failed offers and cancelled negotiations as sentiment reset downward.

Additional pressure came from China's re-entry into the export market through controlled prilled urea allocation. Even though logistical bottlenecks slowed actual Chinese outflows, the expectation of more tons entering the market undermined seller leverage in the Persian Gulf. By November 17, multiple daily reports (Armaiti), combined with Argus and CRU assessments, aligned Persian Gulf granular urea values at USD 398–405 FOB, representing a USD 12–18 decline from early-month highs.

By late November, freight softening on the Persian Gulf → Brazil (21–23 USD/MT) and Persian Gulf → US Gulf (32–34 USD/MT) routes improved netbacks slightly, but not enough to reverse market sentiment. The region ended the month under mild downward pressure, with December trading expected to remain muted unless India signals new import requirements or Chinese exports slow materially.

Reference: Baltic Exchange – Global Freight & Fertilizer Indicators

Iran – Competitive FOB but Challenged by Freight & Sanctions

Iran remained one of the most competitively priced granular urea exporters during November 2025, consistently offering some of the lowest FOB levels globally. Iranian granular urea is primarily traded within the USD 371–380/MT FOB range, occasionally touching the upper USD 383–385 levels when global sentiment strengthened around mid-month. Despite this inherent pricing advantage, Iran continued to face structural barriers that limited its ability to capitalize on global demand fully.

A significant factor suppressing Iran’s competitiveness is the sanction-linked freight premium, which typically adds USD 5–12/MT above equivalent routes from the Persian Gulf or North Africa. This premium arises from higher risk pricing by shipowners, insurance restrictions, and the fleet's reduced willingness to call at Iranian ports. Even when Iranian FOB prices undercut Persian Gulf offers by USD 10–15/MT, these freight add-ons often neutralize the advantage when calculating CFR values for destinations such as Brazil, Turkey, East Africa, and Southeast Asia.

The market also faced limited vessel availability, especially for Handy and Supramax sizes, which are commonly used for Iranian shipments. Tighter vessel supply throughout November—partly due to geopolitical risks and partly because operators favored less-restricted ports—created logistical bottlenecks. This often resulted in delayed loadings or forced traders to accept smaller lots, limiting Iran’s ability to win larger tenders or long-haul cargoes.

Furthermore, buyer psychology following India’s November tender favored Persian Gulf-origin cargoes, as they provided more predictable shipping timelines and clearer financing channels. Even though Iranian producers attempted to raise offers to USD 380–385 FOB, importers in key markets such as Brazil and Turkey rejected these higher levels, citing logistics risks and better-timed offers from neighboring origins. As a result, Iran sold primarily during opportunistic windows, in small parcels, and to regions with flexible freight terms.

Despite these obstacles, Iran maintained a stable presence in the global supply chain, particularly in shorter-haul regional markets, where freight disadvantages are minimized. Its structural pricing edge ensures that the Iranian product continues to play a pivotal role in setting the lower boundary for global granular urea FOB levels — even when sanctions and transportation headwinds prevent full participation in key long-haul markets.

Reference: UN Comtrade – Fertilizer Trade Data

2. AMMONIA MARKET (November 2025)

2.1 Market Overview

Ammonia was the strongest-performing nitrogen product globally in November 2025, registering meaningful price increases in several key markets despite widespread softness across other nitrogen products. Unlike urea—which faced downward pressure from India’s tender and weak demand in Brazil—ammonia benefited from structural supply constraints, elevated feedstock costs, and robust downstream industrial demand

The market continued to grapple with the lingering effect of significant production outages in Trinidad, where several ammonia units representing 2.2 million t/year of capacity remained offline. This disruption tightened long-haul availability into the US Gulf, Europe, and parts of Asia, forcing buyers to rely more heavily on Middle Eastern and North African supply.

At the same time, natural gas and naphtha prices remained elevated in parts of Asia, increasing the production costs for domestic ammonia producers and raising the attractiveness of imported volumes. Strong demand from phosphate producers (DAP/MAP) and industrial consumers such as caprolactam plants provided additional support, underpinning firm pricing across East Asia and Europe.

By contrast, Northwest Europe (CFR 695 USD/MT) and the US Gulf (CFR 655 USD/MT) showed little movement, held steady by long-term contractual coverage and limited spot transactions. These regions remained structurally tight but stable, with no significant fluctuations in supply or demand during the month.

Overall, ammonia’s performance diverged sharply from other nitrogen commodities, delivering a bullish trajectory that is expected to continue until January 2026, after which planned plant restarts could ease the market.

Reference: ICIS – Ammonia Market Overview

Outlook

Short-Term (December 2025 – January 2026)

• Market expected to remain bullish
• Supply constraints from Trinidad and the US Gulf limit downside
• Importers likely to secure early 2026 cargoes at elevated levels
  
  

Medium-Term (February – March 2026)

• Possible correction as several plants restart
• Chinese downstream demand is uncertain.
• Seasonal slowdown in fertilizer production could reduce ammonia pull.
  
  

Key Risks

• Renewed outages in Trinidad, the US Gulf, or North Africa
• Volatility in naphtha and natural gas markets
• Unexpected increases in phosphate demand

The Persian Gulf → Brazil and Persian Gulf → US Gulf routes softened slightly through the month on improving vessel availability. However, gains in the Baltic were significant, as winter weather tightened tonnage and raised rates for long-haul voyages to Mexico and the Americas. Meanwhile, Iranian freight remained structurally elevated due to sanctions-linked premiums and limited owner willingness.

The Black Sea maintained firm freight levels amid ongoing geopolitical instability and higher war-risk insurance, keeping exports to Turkey and the Mediterranean at elevated levels despite stable vessel activity.

In Asia, the China → US Gulf route remained one of the most competitively priced long-haul routes globally, reflecting an abundance of available vessels and consistent chartering activity driven by export markets.

Overall, November freight conditions reinforced bearish CFR benchmarks in Brazil and the United States, while simultaneously tightening differential spreads in the Atlantic Basin.

5.2 Regional Freight Analysis

1. Persian Gulf → Brazil & US Gul

Freight rates softened marginally due to increased tonnage availability, driven by seasonal repositioning of vessels after October’s peak chartering period. Rates eased by 1–2 USD/MT, helping reduce CFR Brazil and CFR US Gulf values slightly.

Impact: Improved netbacks for exporters; bearish signal for import markets.

2. Iran → Brazil

Rates remained elevated at 36–39 USD/MT, driven by sanctions-related risk premia, limited vessel availability, and additional insurance surcharges. Despite Iran’s competitive FOB pricing, freight differentials continued to erode its attractiveness relative to Persian Gulf origins.

Impact: Iran FOB advantage partially canceled by freight overhead.

3. Black Sea → Turkey

Rates held stable at 40–41 USD/MT, reflecting ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and persistent war-risk premiums. Although distances are short, additional risk fees prevent any meaningful softening.

Impact: Turkish CFR levels remain structurally higher than ME-origin alternatives.

4. Baltic → West Coast Mexico

Winter ice conditions and vessel rerouting contributed to the most substantial global freight increase. Rates rose from 54–65 → 62–67 USD/MT, driven by limited vessel supply and seasonal Atlantic tightness.

Impact: MAP, DAP, and urea exporters from Northern Europe face reduced long-haul competitiveness.

5. China → US Gul

One of the few routes globally with stable freight throughout November, supported by balanced vessel availability and consistent export activity out of Chinese ports. Rates held at 27–29 USD/MT for the entire month.

Impact: Chinese prilled urea maintained a competitive landed cost in the Americas.

5.3 Freight Tightness Index

fVery Tight             →         █████       (Baltic)

Tight                          →         ████░        (Iran, Black Sea)

Moderate               →          ███░░       (Persian Gulf)

Loose                       →           ██░░░       (China)

5.4 Outlook – December 2025 & Early 2026

Short-Term (December)

• Atlantic Basin freight is likely to tighten further due to the holidays
• Persian Gulf rates expected to remain stable to slightly firmer
• China and SE Asia routes remain well-supplied
  
  

Medium-Term (Q1 2026)

• Seasonal easing expected post-January
• Freight may soften if Brazil and India reduce spot inquiries
• Baltic routes to normalize after ice-class fleet reallocation

7. MARKET OUTLOOK – December 2025 & Q1 2026

7.1 Urea Outlook – Bearish for December, Volatile for Q1 2026

The global urea market is positioning for another period of softness heading into December.

With the India IPL tender in November setting a ceiling at USD 418–420 CFR, exporters across the Persian Gulf, China, and North Africa are expected to reduce their offers further to maintain competitiveness.

Key Market Signals

• Global downtrend continues: Middle East FOB could test the USD 390–398 range in early December.
• Brazil buyers remain sidelined: Importers are delaying purchases and waiting for lower freight + lower CFR values, keeping demand very thin.
• SE Asia cautious: Indonesia, Vietnam, and Thailand are largely hand-to-mouth, preferring January cargoes.
• China’s export policy remains the wild card: If Beijing releases an additional quota, it will cap global prices; if not, FOB China may stabilize near USD 400–405.
  
  

Q1 2026 Expectation

India is highly likely to issue another strategic tender in late February / early March, which will temporarily support global prices. However, any rally is expected to be short-lived unless China restricts exports.

7.2 Ammonia Outlook – Strong Through January, Correction in February–March

Ammonia is poised to remain the strongest nitrogen product through January 2026, driven by structural shortages and strong downstream demand.

Key Bullish Factors (Dec–Jan)

• Trinidad supply outages continue to limit global availability.
• Tight US Gulf market persists as restocking demand intersects with refinery maintenance cycles.
• Asia’s high naphtha costs keep ammonia economically attractive for some chemical producers.
• Caprolactam, acrylonitrile, and phosphate producers continue to operate at high utilization rates.
  
  

Expected Turning Point – February 2026

• Multiple plants in the Middle East, Malaysia, and Trinidad are scheduled to return online.
• Additional availability should cool prices, possibly pulling Middle East FOB from USD 520–530 → USD 480–500 by March.
  
  

Conclusion:

Strong until January → Controlled correction in February/March.

7.3 Sulphur Outlook – Rally Nearing Exhaustion

Sulphur recorded one of its sharpest rallies of the year in November, but the market is showing increasing stress on the demand side.

What to Expect in December

• Affordability becomes a key constraint: Chinese buyers are already rationing higher-priced cargoes above USD 490–500 CFR.
• Spot demand slows: Many importers have covered near-term needs during the November surge.
• Middle East maintenance easing: As more supply becomes available, pressure on FOB values should relieve.
  
  

December–January Projection

CFR China is likely to correct into the USD 455–470 range by mid-December, with the possibility of further easing if sulphuric acid prices weaken in SE Asia.

Conclusion:

Rally is peaking → correction expected within weeks.

7.4 Phosphates Outlook – Stabilization Expected in Early Q1 2026

The phosphates market (DAP/MAP/TSP) is in a bearish but stabilizing phase.

The late-2025 weakness is driven by delayed purchasing in major importing regions, but structural fundamentals remain stable.

India

• Post-Kharif buying returned slowly in December.
• DAP CFR could stabilize around USD 690–700 into early January.
  
  

Brazil

• MAP CFR stabilizing near USD 620–640, supported by preparations for the Safrinha season.
• Inventory levels remain manageable, preventing any sharp declines.
  
  

US Market

• Weakness from tariff adjustments continues to pressure domestic distributors.
• Import volumes remain low as buyers expect cheaper global offers.
  
  

Conclusion:

Soft through December → Mild recovery expected in January–February.

7.5 Freight Market Outlook – Tight Through the Holidays

Freight dynamics remain a significant variable for all fertilizer trade flows, especially given the historically tight tonnage supply in Q4.

What Drives December Tightness

• Holiday-season crew/staff shortages
• Limited vessel availability for smaller parcels (25–45 kt)
• Higher demand for clean product tankers in petrochemicals
  
  

Route-Specific Outlook

• Baltic routes remain elevated due to winter navigation costs and tight supply.
• Persian Gulf routes may soften slightly as demand pauses after India’s November tender.
• China freight remains relatively stable, supported by steady outbound shipments and affordable bunker prices.
  
  

Q1 2026 Projection

• Freight should ease gradually as vessel supply normalizes post-holidays.
• However, geopolitical risks and winter weather may still cause week-to-week volatility.

REFERENCES

1.Fertilizer & Commodity Organization

• International Fertilizer Association (IFA)
• World Bank – Commodity Price Data
• FAO Fertilizer Statistics Database
• UN Comtrade – Global Trade Data
• World Trade Organization (WTO) – Market Data & Reports
  
  

2. Market Data Platforms & Pricing Benchmarks

• Trading Economics – Urea & Fertilizer Commodity Prices
• Baltic Exchange – Freight Indices (BDI)
• ICIS (Public Fertilizer & Chemical Market Updates)
  
  

3. Proprietary Industry Sources

• Argus Media – Global Fertilizer & Petrochemical Pricing
• CRU Group – Fertilizers & Metals Market Analysis
• Armaiti Mercantile Exchange (Armaiti MEX)
• Marlen Group – Market Analytics